The Future of Forex & The Implications for Global Businesses
The State of Forex in 2023 & How It Impacts Global Business
The foreign exchange market has experienced significant impacts as a result of global economic and political events over the past few years.
Much like other markets and industries, forex has gone through ups and downs in this time. Investors who stayed the course and remained calm during any downturns are now reaping the rewards.
Most experts believe that forex is looking strong in 2023 and beyond. The global economic conditions may not be ideal, but there does appear to be a resilience that should ensure any recession in the United States or other countries is not significant or long-term.
There are several FX market themes that may impact the future of forex in 2023 and beyond. Below are a few of those themes, along with an analysis of how forex impacts global businesses.
The Inflation Question
Inflation is not only a problem in the United States but one that is impacting economies around the world. Most studies show that Americans are less impacted as compared to Europeans and Asians. The forex industry is seeing a very strong US dollar as a result of all this inflation.
The question that forex traders will ask themselves is whether they expect inflation to remain strong in the coming months and the rest of 2023. Will inflation get worse, stay the same, or decrease? If there is a downturn in inflation, then the US dollar may be reigned in by other currencies. The inflation problem continuing would mean an even stronger US dollar.
Central Bank Activities
The actions of central banks are also being closely watched by forex traders. Economic and finance rules state that when a nation’s central bank raises interest rates, then its currency is likely to appreciate. The Federal Reserve in the United States has made it clear that increases are likely, while the UK government is also pursuing similar rate hikes.
If you are planning to invest in currency pairs that involve the US dollar, all the trends for the short and medium term are pointing toward it getting stronger and continuing to appreciate. The same is true for the pound sterling. What may be more interesting to see is how the two currencies will fare against each other for the USD/GBP currency pair.
Automated Trading
The advent of artificial intelligence is set to change the world in 2023 and beyond. The most popular and prominent example is ChatGPT, which people can already use to write essays and do other work. Schools are worried about students using it for plagiarism, which is already happening, according to many teachers.
While ChatGPT will not directly have much of an impact on the forex sector, AI and automated trading are here to stay. Many people are already using forex robots, which are programmed to perform specific actions when buying and selling currencies. AI trading would take that a step further, with artificial intelligence using its knowledge and instructions to decide when to buy or sell a currency pair. Additionally, funded trading accounts have provided individuals with the opportunity to access capital and leverage AI-powered strategies in the forex market to increase their profits.
Many forex traders may have a right to be concerned, as such technology would mean that manual day trading is no longer as lucrative as it was in the past.
Emerging Markets May Be More Vulnerable
The volatility of global economies means that emerging markets are likely to suffer the most. Investing in stronger currencies from first-world countries may be a safer bet.
Many third and second-world countries are already struggling to remain financially afloat, while there are problems in other parts of Asia and in many regions of Africa as well.
Such economic uncertainty is never good for currencies in these nations. The Pakistani rupee, for instance, has been losing value against the United States dollar at a rapid rate in the past few months. Unless these nations can control inflation and keep their economies stable, their currencies may only be worth shorting in 2023.
The Impact of Forex on Businesses
What many people misinterpret about forex is what areas of the market will impact global businesses in 2023. There are many novice forex traders who think that their actions, and the collective actions of traders around the world, can change forex prices to such an extent that they have a positive or negative impact on businesses.
That is not true. The retail side of forex, which involves buying and selling currencies, has no impact on world economies and businesses. The institutional market, which includes major financial institutions and state banks, does impact businesses significantly.
One of the tried and trusted impacts of forex on businesses is that when a nation has a strong currency, its imports become less expensive, and its exports become more expensive. A business in the United States may find they can import goods and parts for cheaper thanks to the strong dollar, while they may also notice that exporting goods is more challenging as not as many customers are willing to pay higher prices.
